The Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (AICPA) and the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) have reported a significant decline in business executives’ confidence in the US economy over the next 12 months.

The findings are based on a survey, which reflected the perspectives of CEOs, CFOs, controllers, and other senior management accountants.

It showed only 27% of respondents have a favourable view, a sharp drop from previous quarters.

Conducted between 5-27 May 2025, the survey gathered 328 responses from qualified CPAs and CGMAs holding executive roles.

The optimism seen after the November election has waned, with the percentage of those holding a favourable view of the economy plummeting from 67% at the end of 2024 to 27% currently.

Inflation and the disorderly implementation of tariffs have heightened recession fears, it said.

One in five executives believes the US is already experiencing a contraction, and another 34% anticipate one by the end of the year.

Of those bracing for a recession, 75% expect it to be moderate to severe.

The uncertainty caused by changing tariff schedules is affecting two-thirds of businesses, leading to increased prices, altered supply chains, and reduced operating costs.

The AICPA survey, which looks ahead at business expectations, contrasts with the US Department of Labor’s employment report, which reviews past hiring trends.

Other significant findings include a tightening in hiring, with only 14% of executives actively seeking new employees, a decrease from 20% last quarter.

Revenue growth projections are at their weakest since 2020, and profit expectations have turned negative, the survey found.

Confidence in individual organisations’ prospects has also fallen, with only 37% of executives feeling positive, down from 50% last quarter.

The survey revealed that “domestic economic conditions” have become the primary concern, overtaking inflation, which was the top concern in the previous quarter.

Association of International Certified Professional Accountants Tom Hood executive vice president of business engagement and growth

“We’re seeing a lot of revised expectations: delayed hiring and investment, pared-back expansion plans, lowered key performance indicators. 

“The data shows a clear pivot from optimism to caution. Businesses are bracing for volatility, and the uncertainty around tariffs is amplifying that shift.”