The world economy is projected to expand at a moderate though unremarkable pace in 2026, according to the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA).
The expansion will be supported by looser monetary policy, fiscal stimulus in several major economies and continued momentum from the AI sector.
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However, in its latest Global Economic Outlook, the association warned of downside risks due to a volatile and uncertain global environment.
In the third edition of the annual report, the ACCA said global growth in 2025 held up better than anticipated despite significant trade disruption and elevated policy uncertainty.
This resilience is expected to persist into 2026.
The ACCA forecasts that world gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by around 3%, broadly matching last year’s performance. However, the report underscores that the risks are “more firmly skewed to the downside”.
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By GlobalDataThe document highlights three areas it considers pivotal for the coming year: developments in AI, movements in advanced economy bond markets and changes in global trade dynamics.
On AI, the report says early productivity gains from AI investment may ease fears of an AI bubble but warns that fading confidence in those gains could trigger a market correction.
The ACCA warns that a sharp rise in government bond yields could hit economies by lifting debt-servicing costs, triggered by debt-sustainability fears, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, political instability and tighter policy in Japan.
On trade, the report calls for close monitoring of the continuing knock-on effects of higher US tariffs and notes that risks of renewed trade escalation persist.
ACCA chief economist and author of the report Jonathan Ashworth said: “On a central case scenario, the global economy should continue with a steady expansion in 2026, aided by looser monetary policy, fiscal easing and the ongoing AI boom.
“But it is a fragile global backdrop, amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, risks of an escalation in trade tensions and concerns about threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.”
